polybots

arb — REAL EDGE

Complementary arbitrage only. 1 YES + 1 NO always redeems for $1.00, so a pair bought below $1 net of both fees is riskless. Predicts nothing. Fires rarely. Profit here is genuine.

Equity

$100,000

+0.00% on $100,000

Cash

$100,000

uncommitted

Realised P&L

$+0.00

0 closed

Fees paid

$0.00

entry + exit legs

Gross before fees

$+0.00

what fees cost you

Win rate

None/0

no open positions

rejected 0 entries · 0 exits (book could not absorb)

control — COST INSTRUMENT — NOT A STRATEGY

Buys a small slice of every candidate and round-trips it. Has NO edge and is EXPECTED TO LOSE roughly the round-trip cost stack. It exists to measure what entering and exiting real books actually costs. Read its P&L as a cost measurement, never as a strategy result.

Equity

$99,953

-0.05% on $100,000

Cash

$98,626

uncommitted

Realised P&L

$-46.65

16 closed

Fees paid

$34.52

entry + exit legs

Gross before fees

$-12.13

what fees cost you

Win rate

0/16

Open position	Shares	Entry	Cost	Fee	Closes
UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Pl	357	0.350	$130.69	$5.69	2026-07-19 03:59
Fight to Go the Distance?	105	0.532	$58.54	$2.78	2026-07-19 03:59
Fight to Go the Distance?	129	0.510	$69.21	$3.29	2026-07-19 03:59
O/U 2.5 Rounds	205	0.610	$130.95	$5.95	2026-07-19 03:59
UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramire	160	0.780	$129.29	$4.29	2026-07-19 03:59
O/U 1.5 Rounds	219	0.570	$131.13	$6.13	2026-07-19 03:59
O/U 2.5 Rounds	160	0.780	$129.29	$4.29	2026-07-19 03:59
UFC Fight Night: Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMi	312	0.400	$131.00	$6.00	2026-07-19 03:59
O/U 1.5 Rounds	227	0.550	$131.19	$6.19	2026-07-19 03:59
UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel	236	0.530	$131.23	$6.23	2026-07-19 03:59
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrig	298	0.420	$131.09	$6.09	2026-07-19 03:59
Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or TKO?	57	0.400	$24.09	$1.10	2026-07-19 03:59

rejected 0 entries · 0 exits (book could not absorb)

Closed trades

Book	Market	Entry	Exit	Fees	P&L	Reason
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE
control	Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or	0.400	0.387	$2.16	$-2.92	LIQUIDITY_GONE

Rejection reason	Count	Share
ALREADY_ENDED	1,222	61.9%
SUBJECTIVE_PREDICATE	574	29.1%
BOOK:spread	149	7.5%
BOOK:one-sided	27	1.4%
BOOK:depth	3	0.2%

Candidates — passed gate and book quality

Market	Bid	Ask	Spread bps	Ask depth	Volume	Flags
UFC Fight Night: Alden Coria vs. Stewart Nicoll (Fly	0.87	0.88	114	366,026	$19,966	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
UFC Fight Night: Dione Barbosa vs. Anna Melisano (Wo	0.83	0.84	120	274,965	$15,650	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez (Lig	0.77	0.78	129	90,372	$17,945	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
O/U 2.5 Rounds	0.6	0.61	165	10,584	$178	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
O/U 1.5 Rounds	0.6	0.61	165	19,290	$1,556	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 The Open Championship?	0.057	0.058	174	136,709	$33,882	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
O/U 1.5 Rounds	0.56	0.57	177	18,017	$1,939	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
O/U 1.5 Rounds	0.54	0.55	183	17,509	$952	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever	0.54	0.55	183	16,084	$529	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgad	0.52	0.53	190	57,070	$30,713	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
UFC Fight Night: Alvin Hines vs. RJ Harris (Heavywei	0.51	0.52	194	251,162	$16,218	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
Fight to Go the Distance?	0.5	0.51	198	5,435	$27	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	0.48	0.49	206	700	$189	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
O/U 2.5 Rounds	0.44	0.45	225	5,542	$3,527	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
Will Alden Coria win by KO or TKO?	0.43	0.44	230	4,531	$472	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr	0.41	0.42	241	208,373	$6,162	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or TKO?	0.39	0.4	253	372	$92	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
UFC Fight Night: Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen (	0.39	0.4	253	251,418	$42,652	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon	0.38	0.39	260	112,946	$85,309	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis	0.34	0.35	290	174,903	$371,457	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
O/U 1.5 Rounds	0.63	0.65	313	18,708	$152	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
O/U 1.5 Rounds	0.6	0.62	328	12,484	$335	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
O/U 1.5 Rounds	0.58	0.6	339	549	$499	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
Fight to Go the Distance?	0.53	0.55	370	657	$456	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH
O/U 2.5 Rounds	0.75	0.78	392	14,710	$204	ORACLE_RESOLUTION_PATH

Recent scans

Scan	Examined	Candidates	Duration
2026-07-18 13:20:44	2,000	25	275s
2026-07-18 12:59:44	2,000	25	203s
2026-07-18 12:39:57	2,000	24	201s
2026-07-18 12:20:13	2,000	25	199s
2026-07-18 12:00:28	2,000	21	147s
2026-07-18 11:41:41	2,000	20	147s
2026-07-18 11:22:55	2,000	17	128s
2026-07-18 11:04:33	2,000	18	128s
2026-07-18 10:46:10	2,000	16	126s
2026-07-18 10:27:51	2,000	17	126s
2026-07-18 10:09:32	2,000	17	126s
2026-07-18 09:51:12	2,000	17	126s